Some customers grow fruit. Others just drink your water.
The Growth Illusion
Everyone worships CAC and LTV. But averages hide reality. Some customers deserve love even if they are costly because they stick, expand, and repay you. Others look cheap and quietly bleed you dry. The skill is not chasing more customers. It is knowing who deserves your water.
Numbers That Reveal the Garden
Gross Profit per Customer
Revenue - direct costs (support, delivery, and hosting).Adjust for hidden costs (discounts, custom features, or heavy support).
Rule: If it scales with them, it belongs to them.
Payback Period
CAC divided by Gross Profit per customer.
Under 12 months means healthy. Over 18 months means only worth it if retention is strong.Expansion Multiplier
Year 2 revenue / Year 1 revenue.
Greater than 1.2 means fruitful. Less than 1.0 means shrinking in your soil.
Two Customers, Two Realities
Gross profit shows whether a customer pays you after delivery. The expansion multiplier shows if they keep paying you tomorrow. Some start thin margin but grow beautifully, worth watering. Others look profitable upfront but shrink in year two, weeds in disguise. You need both lenses.
🚨 Challenge for the week
Pull your top 10 customers. Run the gross profit, payback, and expansion numbers. Label each one as Fruit Bearer, Succulent, Tomato, or Weed. Then choose one to double down on and one to let go.
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Community Note
Every founder has a story about a “weed customer”, the one who looked great at first but drained the team dry. Sharing those lessons helps everyone spot trouble sooner.
Reply to this email and tell us about the customer who surprised you. Was it a fruit bearer or a weed in disguise? We’ll share anonymized stories in a future Nest Playbook so we all grow smarter together.
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